By Mulugeta Bekele
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Ethnic Divisions and Political Tensions
The political landscape remains volatile as ethnic federalism, a system that divides power along ethnic lines, has sparked both autonomy demands and territorial disputes. Established in 1995, ethnic federalism was intended to grant self-determination to various regions but has instead deepened ethnic rivalries.
The TPLF, after its peace agreement with the federal government in 2022, still holds significant political influence in the Tigray region, where calls for greater autonomy continue. Meanwhile, in Oromia, the OLA remains a potent force, pushing for self-rule and rights for the Oromo people. Ethnic militias like Fano, based in the Amhara region, have clashed with federal forces, further complicating efforts for national reconciliation.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who came to power in 2018 with promises of reform, faces mounting pressure from all sides. His attempts to centralize power and foster national unity are seen by some factions as a threat to the decentralized system. "There is deep mistrust between ethnic groups and the federal government, and unless this is addressed, the country risks slipping back into violent conflict," said Dr. Mesfin Tefera, a political analyst based in Addis Ababa.
The Role of Key Factions
TPLF: Once the dominant force in Ethiopian politics, the TPLF was marginalized after Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power. Tensions between the federal government and TPLF escalated into the Tigray War, causing immense devastation. Although a peace agreement was signed in 2022, the relationship remains fragile as Tigray’s calls for greater autonomy persist.
Oromo Liberation Army (OLA): A splinter group from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the OLA has been at the forefront of armed resistance in Oromia. The Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, have long felt excluded from political power despite promises of greater representation under Abiy’s government. "The OLA continues to fight for genuine political inclusion and economic justice for the Oromo people," said Oromo activist Muktar Kedir.
Fano Militia: This Amhara militia, originally formed to protect local communities, has become increasingly involved in violent confrontations, both during the Tigray War and in ongoing disputes with neighboring regions. Fano’s role in ethnic violence has complicated peace efforts, as Amhara nationalists seek to assert territorial claims and defend regional autonomy.
Eritrean Involvement: Eritrea, led by the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), played a significant role in the Tigray War, fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces. Eritrea’s strategic interest in weakening the TPLF, due to historical animosities, continues to influence Ethiopia’s internal dynamics. Reducing Eritrea’s involvement in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs is crucial for regional stability.
Pathways to Peace
Experts argue that a multi-faceted approach is necessary to prevent Ethiopia from descending into further conflict. This includes an inclusive national dialogue that brings together all major factions, including the TPLF, OLA, and Fano, along with civil society and regional leaders. "Ethiopia must move beyond ethnic-based politics and foster a sense of national identity that includes all its citizens," said Alemu Mekonnen, a peace researcher.
Other key strategies include:
Political and Constitutional Reforms: The ethnic federalism system needs reform. Striking a balance between regional autonomy and national unity could help de-escalate ethnic rivalries. Devolving more power to local governments while strengthening national institutions is seen as a potential solution.
Economic Equity and Development: Economic disparities and competition for resources are central to the conflicts. The government must prioritize development in marginalized regions like Oromia and Somali, ensuring equitable access to resources such as land and water.
Disarmament of Ethnic Militias: Disarming groups like Fano and the OLA is critical to securing peace. However, this process must involve reintegrating former fighters into civilian life, providing them with economic opportunities and support.
International Mediation: The African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) can play a pivotal role in facilitating peace talks and ensuring that external actors, such as Eritrea, do not further destabilize the region. "International support is vital, but any solutions must be homegrown and sensitive to Ethiopia’s sovereignty," noted AU envoy, Ambassador Fatima Mohamed.
Challenges Ahead
Despite these recommendations, the path to peace is fraught with challenges. Ethnic militias continue to operate with impunity in several regions, while the federal government struggles to assert control. Humanitarian crises, particularly in Tigray and Oromia, exacerbate tensions and make peacebuilding efforts more difficult.
"The leaders need to show political will and compromise if they want to avoid another war," said Getachew Reda, a former senior TPLF official. "Without addressing the root causes of ethnic division, poverty, and political exclusion, conflict is inevitable."
Conclusion
As Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, avoiding war requires urgent action from both the federal government and regional actors. Inclusive dialogue, constitutional reforms, and economic justice are key to fostering peace and unity. With political will and regional cooperation, Ethiopia can chart a course toward lasting stability. Without these efforts, the nation risks repeating the tragic cycle of violence that has defined its recent history.